Eurusd rises amid mixed German economic data and ECB’s potential stance

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	0.53%	62.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.59%	68.8 Pips
June	0.05%	6.3 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Tue 10:00 AM EUR Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Tue 02:30 PM USD Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Tue 02:30 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech

What happened lately

In Germany, the release of economic data for June 2025 indicates a slight decrease in consumer price inflation. The flash estimate of Germany’s CPI inflation rate dropped to 2% from the previous 2.1% recorded in May, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Similarly, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the same period mirrored this decline, registering at 2% compared to May’s 2.1%. On a month-to-month basis, the CPI inflation rate saw a subtle shift to 0% from 0.1% in May, and the HICP rate also experienced a decrease from 0.2% to 0.1%. Additionally, Germany’s retail trade metrics for May 2025 reveal a downturn. The retail trade turnover, measured over 12 months, fell to 1.6% from a previously revised figure of 2.9% and from 2.3% in April. Monthly data also highlighted a drop in retail trade figures, declining further to -1.6% from April’s -1.1%.

The recent economic metrics from Germany could have implications for the EURUSD. The slight decline in Germany’s inflation rates might suggest easing price pressures, possibly alleviating the European Central Bank’s need for aggressive tightening measures. However, the dip in retail trade turnover hints at a potential slowdown in consumer spending, which could have a dampening effect on economic growth. Collectively, these developments may weigh on the euro’s strength. Nonetheless, the EURUSD observed a rise of 0.53% to 1.17787 and ended June higher by 0.05% or 6.3 pips. Upcoming high-impact events, such as the European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech and the EUR Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, are pivotal. Furthermore, Jerome Powell’s speech could influence the USD side of the currency pair. The interplaying factors, including the ECB’s response to these economic conditions, stand crucial in determining future movements of the EURUSD.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Monday rose 0.53% to 1.17787. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Monday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.18087 with break above could target R2 at 1.18388 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.17074 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.17881 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.59% over the past few days.

EURUSD ended month of June trading session up by 0.05% or 6.3 pips higher.

Key levels to watch out:

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