Audusd sees slight decline amid mixed economic data from Australia and the US

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	-0.03%	-2.3 Pips
Week to-date	0.75%	49 Pips
July	0.01%	0.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 02:30 AM AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Thu 02:30 AM AUD International Trade in Goods (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In Australia, the AiG Industry Index revealed a slight improvement in May 2025, moving to -11.9 points from the previous -12.3 points recorded in April. This marginal positive change indicates a modest improvement in industrial activity, reflecting potential stabilization within the sector. Meanwhile, Australia’s inflation rate as reported by TD Securities for the 12 months leading up to June 2025 showed a decrease to 2.4% from 2.6% in May, suggesting a downward trend in inflationary pressures. These data points combined pose a mixed outlook for the Australian economy; while the industrial sector shows signs of marginal improvement, the lower inflation suggests reduced pricing power or decreased demand pressures. Upcoming events like the AUD Retail Trade Turnover and International Trade in Goods data releases could provide further insights into economic conditions.

Conversely, the economic data from the United States depict a robust labor market as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2025 indicated an increase in job openings to 7.769 million from a revised 7.395 million in April. The increase in job openings signifies strong demand for labor, signaling healthy economic activity and potential wage increases, which can further fuel consumer spending. Upcoming data such as the USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment will be closely watched as it can significantly impact expectations about the U.S. economic trajectory and monetary policy adjustments.

In terms of the AUDUSD exchange rate, the pair experienced a slight decline of 0.03% on Tuesday, settling at 0.65760. The market remains in consolidation, indicating a lack of clear direction amid the mixed data releases. The improvement in the Australian industrial index may lend some support to the Australian dollar, but the decrease in inflation could cap significant gains. On the U.S. side, the strong job openings data enhances the U.S. dollar’s attractiveness. Ultimately, the movement in AUDUSD will likely be influenced by the upcoming high-impact events on both sides. Australian economic data like retail trade turnover and international trade figures could sway the sentiment locally, whereas the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report will be pivotal in shaping market expectations for U.S. monetary policy, possibly leading to heightened volatility in the AUDUSD pair.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.03% to 0.65760. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.65562 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.65903 or trades above daily pivot 0.65732. Break above could target R1 at 0.65931. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.65562 (S1) and daily low of 0.65534 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.65534 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.75% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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