EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 0.21% | 24.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.73% | 85.8 Pips | |
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| July | 0.2% | 23.3 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 03:15 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In May 2025, the U.S. experienced an increase in job openings, rising to 7.769 million from a revised 7.395 million in April. This indicates a strengthening labor market, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the Euro Area, June 2025 saw a rise in Consumer Prices with the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) flash estimate increasing to 0.4% from 0% in May and the HICP flash estimate rising to 0.3% from 0%. However, the Core HICP remained unchanged at 2.3% since the previous month. Additionally, the 12-month HICP flash estimate for June increased slightly to 2% from 1.9% in May, according to Eurostat’s reports.
Regarding Germany, the unemployment rate stayed stable at 6.3% from April to May 2025, with the unemployment change decreasing to 11,000 from 34,000. The flash estimates for Germany’s June 2025 CPI inflation rate and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices both fell slightly. The CPI inflation rate for June reduced to 2% from 2.1%, and the monthly HICP estimate decreased to 0.1% from 0.2%. The 12-month HICP estimate also decreased marginally to 2% from 2.1%. Retail Trade figures showed a declining trend, as the 12-month Retail Trade Turnover in May decreased to 1.6% from the previously revised 2.9%, and the Retail Trade fell further to -1.6% from -1.1% in April.
The EUR/USD exchange rate responded to these mixed economic signals by appreciating 0.21% to 1.18034 on Tuesday. The increase in U.S. job openings compared to the Eurozone’s modest improvements in inflation indicators points to potential USD strength relative to the Euro. However, the subdued retail performance in Germany coupled with stable unemployment indicators reflects economic challenges within Europe, and may limit further Euro appreciation. Market participants are likely attentive to high-impact events on the horizon, such as the European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde’s speech and the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment data, which could further influence EUR/USD’s movements. The existing economic context suggests that traders may favor the USD short-term, though upcoming data releases and central bank remarks will be critical in shaping currency trends.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Tuesday rose 0.21% to 1.18034. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.18353 with break above could target R2 at 1.18673 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.17608 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.18300 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.73% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.19045 |
| R2 | 1.18673 |
| R1 | 1.18353 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.17981 |
| S1 | 1.17661 |
| S2 | 1.17289 |
| S3 | 1.16969 |
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