USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.44% | -63 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.81% | -117.8 Pips | |
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| July | -0.4% | -57.3 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In the United States, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2025 revealed a significant increase in job openings. The figures rose from a revised 7.395 million in April to 7.769 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This uptick suggests an improving labor market, with more available positions signaling strong demand for labor and potentially indicating a robust economic outlook. Such data may hint at increasing consumer spending as more people find employment, and it suggests the economy is in a growth phase, reinforcing positive sentiment about the U.S. economic conditions.
In Japan, the Tankan Large All Industry Capex for the second quarter of 2025 saw a substantial increase, climbing to 11.5% from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. Additionally, Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index edged up to 13 points in Q2 2025 from 12 points in the first quarter, as per the Bank of Japan. However, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook remained stable at 12 points, unchanged from Q1. These incremental improvements in industrial indices convey a cautiously optimistic picture of Japan’s economic landscape. The robust capex growth indicates rising business confidence and potentially higher future production capacities, suggesting that businesses are gearing up for increased demand or improving operational capabilities.
The combination of U.S. and Japanese data influences the USDJPY exchange rate. As the U.S. JOLTS data shows an improving labor market, it strengthens the USD due to positive investor sentiment towards future economic growth, potentially leading to higher interest rates. On the other hand, the positive changes in Japan’s Tankan indices could bolster the JPY by reflecting economic recovery and stability. On Tuesday, USDJPY fell by 0.44% to 143.38, reflecting potentially stronger JPY sentiment from the positive Tankan data. However, the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report, known for high impact, could further shape USDJPY movements. If the payroll data shows a significant increase, the USD may strengthen, possibly reversing or stabilizing the USDJPY rate depending on market reactions.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Tuesday dropped -0.44% to 143.38. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at 142.69 (S1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 142.01 (S2). To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 144.03 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 142.68 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.81%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 145.4 |
| R2 | 144.71 |
| R1 | 144.05 |
| Daily Pivot | 143.36 |
| S1 | 142.69 |
| S2 | 142.01 |
| S3 | 141.34 |