Usdchf declines as us job openings rise, swiss retail turnover stagnates

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	-0.28%	-22.2 Pips
Week to-date	-0.93%	-74.6 Pips
July	-0.27%	-21.1 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 07:30 AM CHF Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May 2025 revealed an increase in job openings, reaching 7.769 million from a revised figure of 7.395 million in April. This rise in job openings suggests a strengthening labor market, signaling potential economic growth and increased employer confidence. With more positions available, it indicates that companies are seeking to expand or improve operations, potentially driving up wages as competition for skilled labor intensifies. This expansion is often seen as a favorable indicator of economic health, as higher employment rates generally lead to increased consumer spending and overall economic activity.

In Switzerland, the retail trade real turnover demonstrated a significant slowdown, as the 12-month change dropped from 1.3% in April to 0% in May 2025. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), this stagnation in retail turnover could imply a weakening in consumer spending, a critical driver of the Swiss economy. The stagnation may raise concerns about subdued economic momentum in Switzerland, potentially linked to cautious consumer sentiment or other external factors affecting consumer behavior. Such a decline can impact economic growth prospects if it persists, possibly influencing monetary policy decisions by the Swiss National Bank.

For the USDCHF currency pair, the differing economic signals from the United States and Switzerland had a noticeable effect, with USDCHF declining by 0.28% to 0.79079. The strengthening U.S. job market might typically support the U.S. dollar; however, the decline suggests the current market dynamics favor the Swiss franc. This could be due to investor sentiment prioritizing safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty or the market’s anticipation of upcoming economic releases, such as the Swiss CPI inflation rate and the U.S. nonfarm payroll employment data. Traders will likely focus on these high-impact reports to gauge future currency movements, as stronger U.S. employment figures could bolster the dollar, while significant changes in Swiss inflation would influence CHF value. Decisions by the Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank in response to these reports will also play a pivotal role in future USDCHF trends.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Tuesday dropped -0.28% to 0.79079. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.7872 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.7836. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.79435 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.78718 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.93%.

Key levels to watch out:

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