EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -0.08% | -9.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.71% | 82.8 Pips |  |
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| July | 0.17% | 20.3 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In the Euro Area, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.3% in May 2025 from 6.2% in April. This marginal increase indicates that the labor market is facing some challenges, although the situation remains relatively stable. Meanwhile, consumer prices have shown signs of rising. The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) both saw increases in their flash estimates for June 2025, indicating a possible uptick in inflationary pressures. Specifically, the Core HICP flashed at 0.4% from 0% in May, while the HICP rose to 0.3% from the previous month. Additionally, the 12-month flash estimate for the HICP indicates a modest yearly increase, reaching 2% from 1.9% in May. These figures suggest that inflation remains in check but is gradually increasing.
In Germany, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3% in May 2025, showing stability in the labor market. However, the unemployment change witnessed a decrease, with 11,000 fewer people unemployed in May 2025 compared to April. This decline indicates that there might be some improvement in the employment situation in Germany, offering a glimmer of positive economic activity within the Euro Area.
In the United States, job openings experienced an increase as indicated by the JOLTS report for May 2025, which showed openings rising to 7.769 million from a revised 7.395 million in April. This growth in job openings suggests strengthening in the U.S. labor market, signaling better employment prospects.
The EUR/USD pairing saw a decrease of 0.08% to 1.17938. The Euro’s marginal lift in inflationary measures is likely insufficient to bring about significant strengthening against the Dollar, especially in light of the increasing job openings in the U.S., which point to robust economic and labor market conditions. The upcoming Nonfarm Payroll Employment figures in the U.S. are critical; should they show positive job growth, they may further strengthen the USD against the Euro, potentially applying further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The pair seems to be in a consolidation phase for now, with significant movements pending forthcoming economic data releases from both regions.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Wednesday dropped -0.08% to 1.17938. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.17569 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.18101 or trades above daily pivot 1.17835. Break above could target R1 at 1.18204. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.17569 (S1) and daily low of 1.17466 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.17466 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.71% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.18839 |
| R2 | 1.1847 |
| R1 | 1.18204 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.17835 |
| S1 | 1.17569 |
| S2 | 1.172 |
| S3 | 1.16934 |
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