USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -0.4% | -55.2 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.69% | -95 Pips |  |
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| July | -0.15% | -21 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In May 2025, the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported an increase in job openings, reaching 7.769 million from a revised 7.395 million in April. The rise in job vacancies indicates a robust labor market, likely contributing to positive sentiment regarding economic health in the United States. Such an increase suggests businesses are seeking to expand or are experiencing higher demand for their goods and services, which can lead to increased consumer spending and economic growth. The JOLTS data is a critical indicator analyzed by policymakers to gauge the labor market’s strength and guide monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. A tightening labor market can put upward pressure on wages, potentially leading to inflationary trends which might prompt the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to maintain economic stability.
From a currency perspective, the increase in job openings is generally seen as a signal of economic strength, which could reinforce the U.S. dollar’s position against other major currencies, including the Canadian dollar. However, on Wednesday, USDCAD dropped by 0.4% to 1.35879, with the pair in a consolidation phase. This movement might be attributed to market participants factoring in current and anticipated economic conditions, including the forthcoming high-impact Nonfarm Payroll Employment data. If the upcoming payroll data significantly exceeds expectations, it could further amplify support for the dollar, likely leading to a potential appreciation against the Canadian dollar, reversing the recent drop. In contrast, should the data underperform, the USDCAD might face downward pressure due to decreased confidence in a speedy economic recovery.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Wednesday dropped -0.4% to 1.35879. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.35583 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.36588 or trades above daily pivot 1.36086. Break above could target R1 at 1.36381. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.35583 (S1) and daily low of 1.35790 as support levels. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.35790 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.69%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.37179 |
| R2 | 1.36884 |
| R1 | 1.36381 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.36086 |
| S1 | 1.35583 |
| S2 | 1.35288 |
| S3 | 1.34785 |
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