USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | 0.17% | 23.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.75% | -108.7 Pips |  |
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| July | -0.33% | -48.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In the United States, the latest JOLTS report for May 2025 revealed an increase in job openings to 7.769 million, up from a revised 7.395 million in April. This indicates a growing demand for labor, suggesting a robust labor market. Increased job openings typically signal that businesses are thriving and potentially expanding, as they seek more employees to meet higher demand. This development could bolster consumer spending and support economic growth if it leads to higher employment rates. Such a strong labor market is often seen as indicative of a healthy economy, which may then influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
In Japan, the economic data from the second quarter of 2025 showed a significant improvement in business sentiment and investment. The Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure (Capex) surged to 11.5% from 3.1% in the previous quarter. This increase suggests a renewed commitment from conglomerates to invest in business infrastructure and expansion, often seen as a positive economic indicator. Additionally, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index increased slightly to 13 points from 12 points in the first quarter, reflecting improved confidence among large manufacturers. The steady outlook at 12 points reinforces the belief that manufacturers are cautiously optimistic about future business conditions, maintaining their growth expectations.
Considering these economic updates, the USDJPY currency pair presents an intriguing scenario. The rise in U.S. job openings underscores a strong labor market, possibly strengthening the U.S. dollar as it may lead to expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. This factor could support the appreciation of USD in the USDJPY pair. Conversely, Japan’s improved capex and manufacturing sentiment might strengthen the yen by signaling domestic economic recovery. However, if U.S. economic growth outpaces that of Japan due to robust labor data, it could result in the USD gaining ground over the JPY. The USDJPY’s minor rise by 0.17% reflects these dynamics in the market as it awaits further cues, such as the upcoming nonfarm payroll data, which could provide clearer signals for traders and investors about the pair’s potential direction. Any indication from these upcoming figures that fuels expectations of U.S. economic outperformance might further drive up the USD against the JPY. The pair appears to be in a consolidation phase, with traders poised for potential volatility coming from anticipated economic releases.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Wednesday rose 0.17% to 143.62. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 143.21 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 144.24 or trades above daily pivot 143.73. While to the downside, the daily low of 143.32 and 143.21 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 144.24 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.75%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 145.06 |
| R2 | 144.65 |
| R1 | 144.14 |
| Daily Pivot | 143.73 |
| S1 | 143.21 |
| S2 | 142.8 |
| S3 | 142.28 |