Aud/usd consolidates amid mixed economic data from us and australia

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.19%	-12.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.66%	43 Pips
July	-0.08%	-5.3 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In the United States, economic indicators showed mixed results for June 2025. New orders for manufactured goods in May saw a significant rebound, increasing by 8.2% after a 3.7% decline in April. June’s nonfarm payroll employment increased slightly to 147,000 from a revised 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month, while initial unemployment claims decreased slightly to 233,000. However, the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 62.3% from 62.4%. In terms of earnings, average hourly earnings growth slowed in both the one-month period (to 0.2% from 0.4%) and the 12-month period (to 3.7% from a revised 3.8%). The U-6 measure of labor underutilization improved marginally, decreasing to 7.7% from 7.8%.

Australia’s economic data for May 2025 reflected some positive trends, albeit with some concerns. Imports of goods grew substantially by 3.8% from April’s 1.1%, while the international trade in goods balance decreased significantly, falling to 2238 million from the previously revised 4859 million. Exports slowed down further, declining to -2.7% from a revised -2.4%. Retail trade turnover showed a slight recovery, increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous figure of -0.1%. Dwelling approvals made a significant comeback, escalating by 3.2% from a previously revised decrease of -4.1%. The AiG Industry Index indicated a minor improvement from -12.3 points to -11.9 points between April and May 2025.

The mixed economic data from both countries presents a complex scenario for the AUD/USD pair. The Australian data indicating a sharp drop in trade surplus and exports could exert downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. data, though mixed with slowing wage growth, shows strength in employment and manufacturing orders, potentially strengthening the U.S. dollar. As a result, the recent 0.19% decline in the AUD/USD to 0.65698 reflects consolidating conditions and may continue barring any major developments. This volatility and consolidation suggest a cautious outlook for traders speculating on this currency pair.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.19% to 0.65698. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.65417 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.65877 or trades above daily pivot 0.65647. Break above could target R1 at 0.65928. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.65417 (S1) and daily low of 0.65366 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.65366 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.66% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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