Eur/usd declines amid mixed economic indicators in us and euro area

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.31%	-37 Pips
Week to-date	0.37%	43.8 Pips
July	-0.16%	-18.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In the United States, various economic indicators show mixed results for June 2025. Notably, new orders for manufactured goods in May rose sharply by 8.2%, rebounding significantly from a 3.7% decline in April, suggesting strength in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment increased by 147,000 in June, slightly up from 139,000 in May, indicating a modest improvement in job creation. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims also fell marginally to 233,000 by the end of June, suggesting a healthy labor market. However, the Labor Force Participation Rate slightly dropped to 62.3% in June from 62.4% in May, and the U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% over the same period, reflecting an overall tightening labor market. Nevertheless, the Average Hourly Earnings over one month and 12 months both saw declines; the 1-month figure fell to 0.2% from 0.4% and the 12-month figure decreased to 3.7% from a revised 3.8%, indicating slower wage growth. The U-6 Total measure of labor underutilization dropped to 7.7% from 7.8%, suggesting that underemployment conditions have improved slightly.

In the Euro Area, unemployment marginally increased from 6.2% in April to 6.3% in May 2025, indicating a small rise in joblessness across the region according to Eurostat.

Regarding the EURUSD currency pair, with the aforementioned U.S. economic data showing robust manufacturing orders and improved employment metrics despite slower wage growth, there could be support for the U.S. dollar. This support stems from the perception of relative economic health and tightening in the labor market in the U.S. compared to the slight rise in Euro Area unemployment. The recent drop of EURUSD by 0.31% to 1.17568 could be partially explained by this economic backdrop, along with a lack of major events that might otherwise influence market sentiment. The consolidation phase might persist unless new compelling economic drivers emerge. Overall, the current economic conditions suggest a more favorable outlook for the USD, potentially putting further pressure on the EURUSD.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday dropped -0.31% to 1.17568. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.17124 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.18101 or trades above daily pivot 1.17613. Break above could target R1 at 1.18056. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.17124 (S1) and daily low of 1.17169 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.17169 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.37% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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