Nzdusd declines as US economic indicators show mixed signals

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.31%	-18.6 Pips
Week to-date	0.25%	15 Pips
July	-0.33%	-20.3 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

In May 2025, the United States saw significant economic activity in the manufacturing sector, with new orders for manufactured goods rising by 8.2%, a stark contrast to the previous month’s 3.7% decline, as reported by the Census Bureau. The employment sector showed modest improvement with U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment increasing to 147K in June 2025, marginally up from the revised figure of 139K in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims also dropped slightly to 233K from the previous figure of 236K (revised to 237K), hinting at a marginal improvement in job stability as reported by the Department of Labor. However, the Labor Force Participation Rate fell slightly to 62.3% from 62.4% the previous month.

The unemployment rate in June decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, signaling a marginal improvement in employment conditions. Despite this favorable drop in unemployment, the U.S. faced mixed signals on wage growth. Average Hourly Earnings for June grew by just 0.2% compared to 0.4% in May, indicating a deceleration in wage growth. Over a 12-month period, the earnings rate dropped to 3.7% from a revised rate of 3.8% in May (initially reported as 3.9%). Moreover, the U-6 Total, which measures labor underutilization, decreased slightly to 7.7% in June from 7.8% in May. These mixed labor market metrics highlight a complex economic situation in the U.S.

The developments in the U.S. economy, especially the improvements in manufacturing orders and unemployment, have the potential to impact NZDUSD dynamics. The U.S. dollar can strengthen against the New Zealand dollar as economic indicators such as the drop in unemployment and the rise in nonfarm payrolls suggest an improving U.S. economic landscape, making U.S. assets more attractive. However, the softer wage growth can temper some of that optimism, keeping the NZDUSD pair in a consolidation phase in the absence of significant upcoming economic events. The decrease in NZDUSD by 0.31% to 0.60673 reflects the current period of consolidation facing minor influences from such mixed economic data out of the U.S.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Stats NZ

What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.31% to 0.60673. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.60338 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.60928 or trades above daily pivot 0.60633. Break above could target R1 at 0.60968. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.60338 (S1) and daily low of 0.60298 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.60298 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

#NZDUSD Trending on Twitter

[custom-twitter-feeds hashtag=”#NZDUSD” num=3 showheader=false]