USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.9% | 129.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.16% | 23.5 Pips |  |
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| July | 0.58% | 84 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In May 2025, the United States experienced a significant rebound in new orders for manufactured goods, registering an increase of 8.2%, a substantial recovery from the 3.7% decline witnessed in April, as reported by the Census Bureau. The labor market also showed signs of strengthening, although with mixed signals. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment increased to 147,000 in June 2025 from a revised figure of 139,000 in May. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims saw a slight decrease to 233,000 in the week ending June 28, indicative of marginal improvements in job stability.
The U.S. unemployment rate in June fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, suggesting a tight labor market, although the Labor Force Participation Rate edged down to 62.3% from 62.4%. Despite these positive figures, wage growth reflected in Average Hourly Earnings showed some weaknesses. Monthly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% in June from 0.4% in May, and annual earnings growth slipped to 3.7% from the revised 3.8%. The U-6 measure, encompassing broader labor underutilization, marginally decreased to 7.7% from 7.8%, indicating slight improvements but hinting at underlying slack.
The economic data from the United States reflects a nuanced picture for the USDJPY currency pair. A significant increase in manufactured goods orders and a decline in unemployment rate tend to bolster the U.S. dollar, potentially increasing its demand. However, subdued wage growth and decreased labor force participation could limit the dollar’s strength. On Thursday, USDJPY rose by 0.9% to 144.92, indicating that, despite some weaknesses, the overall economic sentiment was positive for the dollar. The temporary absence of major events may maintain current levels, with traders possibly factoring in recent positive employment figures and manufacturing gains against tepid wage data. This movement suggests a short-term bullish outlook for USDJPY in the absence of significant external shocks or additional data.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Thursday rose 0.9% to 144.92. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 145.62 with break above could target R2 at 146.32. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 143.44 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 145.23 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 147.41 |
| R2 | 146.32 |
| R1 | 145.62 |
| Daily Pivot | 144.53 |
| S1 | 143.83 |
| S2 | 142.74 |
| S3 | 142.04 |