Usdchf rises on robust US economic performance and moderate Swiss inflation increase

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.47%	36.9 Pips
Week to-date	-0.43%	-34.6 Pips
July	0.24%	18.9 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

The United States showed a robust economic performance with a notable 8.2% increase in new orders for manufactured goods in May 2025, recovering from a 3.7% decline in April. This suggests strong production activity, which positively influences economic growth prospects. Furthermore, nonfarm payrolls witnessed an improvement in June 2025, with employment increasing to 147,000 from 139,000 in May. This uptick in employment is a promising sign for the labor market, although the labor force participation rate slightly decreased from 62.4% in May to 62.3% in June. The unemployment rate saw a positive drop to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May, indicating a tightening labor market. Initial unemployment claims also decreased to 233,000 in the week ending June 28, suggesting fewer layoffs.

Conversely, average hourly earnings showed some slowdown. On a 1-month basis, the growth rate decreased from 0.4% in May to 0.2% in June. Over a 12-month period, the rate fell to 3.7% from a revised figure of 3.8% for May, suggesting that wage growth is tapering. The U-6 rate, another measure of labor under-utilization, showed a slight improvement, decreasing to 7.7% from 7.8% in May.

In Switzerland, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate for June 2025 increased slightly to 0.2% from 0.1% in May, according to the Federal Statistical Office. This modest rise in inflation indicates a gradual increase in price levels within the Swiss economy.

The combination of strong U.S. manufacturing data, an improving labor market, alongside a slight increase in Swiss inflation contributes to USD strength. Given that USDCHF rose by 0.47% to 0.79452 recently, the positive U.S. economic indicators likely bolstered the USD against the CHF, despite the minor wage growth slowdown. The continued trend of robust U.S. economic performance relative to the moderate Swiss price level increases suggests further potential appreciation of the USDCHF pair if the present conditions persist. However, market participants would closely watch future economic events and data releases to determine ongoing exchange rate movements.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Thursday rose 0.47% to 0.79452. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.79879 with break above could target R2 at 0.80306 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.79003 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.79868 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.43%.

Key levels to watch out:

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