EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.16% | -19 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.66% | -78 Pips |  |
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| July | -0.73% | -86 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In the United States, the initial claims for unemployment insurance saw a decline to 227,000 in the week ending 5 July. This is a slight improvement from the previous week’s figure, which was revised from 233,000 down to 232,000. This decrease signals a potentially strengthening job market, as fewer individuals are filing for unemployment benefits. The reduction in unemployment claims can be indicative of a stable or improving employment situation. It may also reflect businesses’ confidence in retaining their workforce amid economic conditions as of early July.
Turning to Germany, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained unchanged in June 2025, with a one-month figure stable at 0.1% and an annual rate steady at 2%. This consistency suggests that inflationary pressures in Germany are stable, with no significant change from the previous month of May. The unchanged HICP figures are indicative of balanced consumer prices, pointing to a stable inflation scenario, which does not exert additional economic pressure or require immediate response from monetary policy authorities.
Considering these economic updates, the EURUSD currency pair edged down by 0.16% to 1.17000 on Thursday. The decline, while modest, suggests the market’s nuanced reaction to the balance of economic conditions. The U.S. job market improvement is generally supportive of the dollar, potentially putting mild pressure on the euro. Meanwhile, the stable inflation in Germany, which aligns without exerting added pressure on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, does not provide any substantial upward boost for the euro. As such, the pair remains in a state of consolidation. With no major events impacting market sentiment, the EURUSD is likely to continue trading in a narrow range, responding primarily to broader economic themes rather than specific data announcements. As markets continue to interpret these data points, any future surprising changes in labor or inflation metrics might more significantly influence the direction of the EURUSD pair.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Thursday dropped -0.16% to 1.17000. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.16577 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.17490 or trades above daily pivot 1.17033. Break above could target R1 at 1.17457. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.16577 (S1) and daily low of 1.16610 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.16610 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.66%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.18337 |
| R2 | 1.17913 |
| R1 | 1.17457 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.17033 |
| S1 | 1.16577 |
| S2 | 1.16153 |
| S3 | 1.15697 |
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